My view on Starting pitching is somewhat different than my
counterpart. While Jason tends to see
the sunrise as he tries to find some permutation that allows for a predictive
element, I tend to look at resume and trends, then couple that with what I see from a
player. Then try to find a pitcher, not just a thrower. Pitching is about
confusion. There are some sabermetrics
to look at , but there is more to it.
With regard to fantasy baseball, it’s a game of king of the hill.
No one stays on top
forever, and the trick is knowing when to get off the bandwagon and find the
next big thing. 4 years ago Roy Halladay
was the untouchable, now he is unownable.
There are tea leaves to read .
Innings: One of the big things I try to look at is the
unnatural joining of age and innings.
Take Mr. Halladay. Up untill his injury, He was aging and throwing up big
innings year after year. That was why I
cautioned listeners to avoid Cliff Lee.
Lee could be very solid again next year, but the likelihood for a
regression rises in this situation.
This is also why Verlander fell
out of my top 5 and and I am higher on other guys. The amount of innings that
he has thrown over the past 3-4 years have taken a toll and I am very leery.
“Stuff”: No other factor is harder to find on paper,
or in a kitchen equation. This is why I
am high on Stasburg, Scherzer , and Liriano.
Is this a gut feeling? Yes to a degree.
Does Strasburg carry injury risk, yes, but the upside is just other
worldly. Is Liriano a top 10? Probably
not at this time, but if you can get him in a deep league, or take him off the
board under someones nose you could reap some tremendous benefits. Take this for just a sabermetric analysis on Liriano; His Fastball velocity is
finally returning to the mid 90’s, and coupled with the fact he is throwing his
change up more often for strikes, and that he now plays for a contender in the
national league, I see a guy who has had flashes of
brilliance and could put a tremendous season on tap.
K/9: Perhaps this ties closely to the above
category, but this is a quick and easy measure that people can look at. The ability to K a batter an inning is a
great indicator of not only the physical abilities of a pitcher, but the acumen
of a pitcher to get someone to swing and miss.
Extraneous: The players team and park and league all
factor into my decision to draft a player.
While Chris Sale is a very solid pitcher with a great K/9, he plays in
a hitters park in the AL, and the White Sox are clearly going the wrong
way. His record was 11-14. Leagues count wins as a category either in
roto or H2H, Give me an elite pitcher on a winning team or in the NL where
ERA’s tend to run a bit lower.
These are things that I look at when drafting or deciding
who to keep. All of this changes with
the structure of your league. In the end
of the season we all have players we say, “ gee , never saw that coming”. This helps minimize the times we say that,
and puts together a stronger staff for you fantasy team.
Tom
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