Seattle's $240 Million Gamble.

Much has been made of the Seattle Mariners' recent signing of Robinson Cano.  The money is huge, $240 million.  The commitment is also huge, 10 years terminating at Cano's age 41 season.  Most of the media has made their hay by discussing the inherent fallacy of such a risky contract.  The idea that a player will stay relevant and productive through their age 41 season (the Pujols contract being a giant, glowing crater of an example), the massive payroll commitment to one player by a small market club, even the unlikeliness of one position player turning around a club.

But there are writers who think critically and go against the madding crowd, able to see the bigger picture and understand the likely return for Seattle.  One such writer (and a ridiculously entertaining read) is Grantland.com's Jonah Keri.  He has submitted an excellent article on the Cano question.  I shall refrain from rehashing his arguments here, but I must say I agree.

My father and I argued over this transaction a bit.  We are both Red Sox fans, with little to no stake in this signing other than it's effect on the balance of power in the AL East.  But, like many fans of his generation my dad is rather upset.  He feels that this is a senseless move by Cano.  His chief argument goes back to the old saw of "how much money is enough," but it's also a little deeper.  He agrees with the writers who believe that Cano is damaging his legacy by heading to a losing club.  And that his decision to take such a huge contract from a middling organization is the ultimate example of money trumping all.

I disagree.  There are multiple factors to what has happened.  And I shall attempt to keep this brief and to the point.

1. Second basemen tend to fall off the cliff production wise once they enter their early thirties.  Speculative reasoning for this drop-off includes the fact that second basemen are frequently players who were shifted from shortstop at some point because they were not athletically gifted enough to stay at that position, as well as the idea that keystone players tend to take a beating turning the double play as victims of the take out slide.  Combine the two ideas and you may have all the reason you need.  As such Cano should absolutely take the longest, richest deal available because he could turn back into a pumpkin any day now.  I don't believe this will happen in the near term, but still.

2.  Baseball prints money.  True, it's at the cost of both the fans and non-fans (if you watch any cable television in the US you are paying for baseball.  It's really that simple.  The networks pay through the nose for the rights, then pass that fee onto you through their channel holdings and studio development deals).  But Americans continue to line up to pay for the right to watch the game, so the money has to go somewhere.  Should it line the pockets of the owners only, or do the players we actually tune in to watch deserve to see that wealth?  I say the players should get their cut.  Also, in the modern era, players aren't just looking to buy a big house and some cars.  Many want to start businesses or invest in teams themselves.  And that money goes a long way towards accomplishing those goals and setting up these players and their descendents long term.

3.  As Keri outlines so well, Cano is a terrific player with a high WAR.  He's probably as deserving of this money as anyone in the game right now.  Shouldn't the best players be paid at such a rate?  And before you start crying about home town discounts consider this: teams regularly trade and dump players once they see diminishing returns.  Why should players be loyal to teams that profit directly from their work, then kick them to the curb, and why should they give them a financial break?  And few teams have become more ruthlessly unsentimental than the Yankees.  Many teams ride their famous players into the ground letting them finish out a career.  But the Yanks have been dumping aging players all the way back to Babe Ruth.  If you aren't named Jeter or Rivera, you aren't hanging around long.  And even Jeter had a very acrimonious contract extension negotiation his last time around.  But in the end the team won because he didn't want to play elsewhere.  Karma is a bitch ain't it, Cashman?

4.  Finally, as much as Seattle is being made out as desperate and foolish, this is a good move.  Keri again outlines the reasons.  Creating a marketable destination for future free agents.  Spending money that is already falling into the team's lap thanks to the TV deals.  The fact that "small market" Seattle has it's own sports network.  Oh, and they are owned by a huge corporation that can afford to spill a little cash around.

Sure the last 4 years or so may be rough if Cano sticks it out to the bitter end.  But that's usually how sports contracts work.  You get high end production below market up front, and pay for it in arrears.

Jason 

Episode 6: The Hot Stove Heats Up

Tom and Jason take a little time to dissect some of the off-season's biggest moves.  Tigers and Rangers and Yankees, Oh my!

New Episode Recording Tomorrow

We'll be taking a moment to cover the flurry of moves in the last two weeks...trades, free agents...everyone is on the move and a couple of big names will have new addresses in 2014.  Check it out!