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Saturday, October 26, 2013
Monday, October 21, 2013
Tom Adds To The Pitching Debate
My view on Starting pitching is somewhat different than my
counterpart. While Jason tends to see
the sunrise as he tries to find some permutation that allows for a predictive
element, I tend to look at resume and trends, then couple that with what I see from a
player. Then try to find a pitcher, not just a thrower. Pitching is about
confusion. There are some sabermetrics
to look at , but there is more to it.
With regard to fantasy baseball, it’s a game of king of the hill.
No one stays on top
forever, and the trick is knowing when to get off the bandwagon and find the
next big thing. 4 years ago Roy Halladay
was the untouchable, now he is unownable.
There are tea leaves to read .
Innings: One of the big things I try to look at is the
unnatural joining of age and innings.
Take Mr. Halladay. Up untill his injury, He was aging and throwing up big
innings year after year. That was why I
cautioned listeners to avoid Cliff Lee.
Lee could be very solid again next year, but the likelihood for a
regression rises in this situation.
This is also why Verlander fell
out of my top 5 and and I am higher on other guys. The amount of innings that
he has thrown over the past 3-4 years have taken a toll and I am very leery.
“Stuff”: No other factor is harder to find on paper,
or in a kitchen equation. This is why I
am high on Stasburg, Scherzer , and Liriano.
Is this a gut feeling? Yes to a degree.
Does Strasburg carry injury risk, yes, but the upside is just other
worldly. Is Liriano a top 10? Probably
not at this time, but if you can get him in a deep league, or take him off the
board under someones nose you could reap some tremendous benefits. Take this for just a sabermetric analysis on Liriano; His Fastball velocity is
finally returning to the mid 90’s, and coupled with the fact he is throwing his
change up more often for strikes, and that he now plays for a contender in the
national league, I see a guy who has had flashes of
brilliance and could put a tremendous season on tap.
K/9: Perhaps this ties closely to the above
category, but this is a quick and easy measure that people can look at. The ability to K a batter an inning is a
great indicator of not only the physical abilities of a pitcher, but the acumen
of a pitcher to get someone to swing and miss.
Extraneous: The players team and park and league all
factor into my decision to draft a player.
While Chris Sale is a very solid pitcher with a great K/9, he plays in
a hitters park in the AL, and the White Sox are clearly going the wrong
way. His record was 11-14. Leagues count wins as a category either in
roto or H2H, Give me an elite pitcher on a winning team or in the NL where
ERA’s tend to run a bit lower.
These are things that I look at when drafting or deciding
who to keep. All of this changes with
the structure of your league. In the end
of the season we all have players we say, “ gee , never saw that coming”. This helps minimize the times we say that,
and puts together a stronger staff for you fantasy team.
Tom
Saturday, October 19, 2013
New Episodes Being Recorded Tomorrow
We'll be talking 1B, 2B, 3B and SS. Have any questions about those positions? Send us your message!
twitter: @keeperssleepers
email: keepers.sleepers@gmail.com
Hit us up!
twitter: @keeperssleepers
email: keepers.sleepers@gmail.com
Hit us up!
Friday, October 18, 2013
Jason On Starting Pitchers
After recording episode one of Keepers & Sleepers I thought it would be appropriate to add a little depth to the recorded argument. On the show our focus is to be funny and informative. We won't tend to rely completely on numbers during the show because that can get a little dry. Rather, we'll post supporting arguments or extensions of discussions here on the site. With that in mind, let's take a deeper look at starting pitching.
The biggest initial debate that Tom and I had was Cliff Lee. Tom doesn't like him in the top 10 due to his age, which will be 35 for the majority of the 2014 season (he'll turn 36 on August 30th that year). This is a legitimate concern. Age is an enemy once a player has passed their prime years. Lee could be due for a large age related regression. He has shown a little bit of decline in the last couple of years with his strikeout % declining while the league's rate is rising. That said, he still put up very solid numbers. Do I believe he is a long term keeper? Absolutely not. But I do believe he still has top 10 value for 2014, even with regression. Further I believe he's capable of staying at or near his current level for one more season. The excellent fangraphs.com site has, using their "Steamer" projection model, pegged him for a major innings pitched dip in 2014 to 192. I can't help but notice though, that with the exception of his nightmare 2007 season (6.29 ERA in 16 starts, plus a demotion to the minors), Lee hasn't failed to post 200 or more innings since his first full season in 2004 when he threw 179. To me the bottom line is that he has superb walk and strikeout rates, surrenders runs at 77% of the league average, and grinds out wins, even on a bad team. Any arm that gives you the possibility of a sub 3.00 ERA, 200 innings, 200 K's and a low WHIP is a safe keeper.
The big debate was Francisco Liriano. Tom loves his upside. I am all too familiar with his reality. I'll post his career stats (and those of Mike Smithson just for fun) at the bottom of this post. Scroll down right now and check them out, I'll wait right here.
Now, if you want to invest in that type of skill set, by all means, be my guest. I'll just scoop up someone better with my next pick on the draft board. Here's the bottom line: my statement on the show was accurate. He had one dominant season. And even that's a half truth as he only got 16 starts in 2006. He put up serviceable numbers in 2010 in wins and strikeouts. But the ERA and WHIP were pretty pedestrian. So yes 2013 was a good season for Liriano. But the problem is all the bad ones that came before it. Tom discussed the fact that he was rebounding from arm trouble. Here's his career pitching arm injury history: forearm inflammation in 2006 leading to Tommy John surgery in November of that year. You can't use TJ 7 years later as an excuse when the accepted recovery window is 2 seasons. He had a shoulder strain in late 2011 costing him the last fifth of the season, but not requiring surgical intervention. In fact, aside from breaking his RIGHT humerus in December of last year, Liriano has spent the last two years healthy and taking his regular turn. He was out until May of this year recovering from the fracture and rounding into shape. Need more cold water on this latest hot name? How about this: Baseball-Reference.com's list of 10 most comparable pitchers. Scott Kazmir, number one. Yum. Are we really going to be serious about holding a keeper spot for a guy who had half a breakout season 7 years ago, and has put up two ownable years since? I'll pass. It doesn't mean I won't draft him at some point next year, but he's a back of rotation guy for a fantasy team. Perhaps the fact that he adjusted his mechanics is the reason for his success. It's possible he'll have another good year next year, but it's no sure thing. He should be grouped with guys like Justin Masterson and Lance Lynn. And I'll draft both of them for their youth and career arcs before throwing a pick at a 30 year old, frequently injured power lefty.
Finally, I'll bring up some names we didn't discuss, but probably merited being in the conversation.
Justin Verlander-There's nothing really wrong with the old warhorse, as his post-season performance this year is proving. Mostly he didn't have the run support that his teammate, Max Scherzer benefited from. His real crime? Appearing to be human, rather than the fireball throwing cyborg we previously assumed he was. I think he'll be fine in 2014. He didn't make our list because the numbers simply weren't good enough this year, and there is some concern based upon his crazy high pitch counts for multiple seasons.
Jose Fernandez-Good lord, do I love this kid. And that was before a lights out rookie season. He just gets easy to overlook because of the limited upside of pitching on a team that featured no offense and a shaky bullpen. It also has to be kept in mind that we are talking about one season. A small sample size, and many players struggle in their sophomore seasons.
Garret Cole-Jose Fernandez redux. Great minor league numbers, got called up into the middle of a pennant race and pitched like a veteran. Future is bright. His peripherals could have been stronger, but he posted 10 wins in a short season. Worth thinking about.
Shelby Miller-Same as the two above, but with more stability. He's the real deal and will only get better. This is one young arm I would have no qualms with as a keeper.
David Price-Horrible start, great finish (well, aside from the post-season). Should be a little more stable across the length of next season. The one danger: his looming departure from Tampa. That ballpark suppresses offense more than any other. No Dome for David could mean no clothes for the emperor.
Here are the career numbers. And for the record I plucked Smithson's name out of my head as a Red Sox fan thinking he was a hyperbolic overstatement of mediocre pitching. Turns out he's actually kind of close to Liriano. I'd still rather have Liriano, but...
The biggest initial debate that Tom and I had was Cliff Lee. Tom doesn't like him in the top 10 due to his age, which will be 35 for the majority of the 2014 season (he'll turn 36 on August 30th that year). This is a legitimate concern. Age is an enemy once a player has passed their prime years. Lee could be due for a large age related regression. He has shown a little bit of decline in the last couple of years with his strikeout % declining while the league's rate is rising. That said, he still put up very solid numbers. Do I believe he is a long term keeper? Absolutely not. But I do believe he still has top 10 value for 2014, even with regression. Further I believe he's capable of staying at or near his current level for one more season. The excellent fangraphs.com site has, using their "Steamer" projection model, pegged him for a major innings pitched dip in 2014 to 192. I can't help but notice though, that with the exception of his nightmare 2007 season (6.29 ERA in 16 starts, plus a demotion to the minors), Lee hasn't failed to post 200 or more innings since his first full season in 2004 when he threw 179. To me the bottom line is that he has superb walk and strikeout rates, surrenders runs at 77% of the league average, and grinds out wins, even on a bad team. Any arm that gives you the possibility of a sub 3.00 ERA, 200 innings, 200 K's and a low WHIP is a safe keeper.
The big debate was Francisco Liriano. Tom loves his upside. I am all too familiar with his reality. I'll post his career stats (and those of Mike Smithson just for fun) at the bottom of this post. Scroll down right now and check them out, I'll wait right here.
Now, if you want to invest in that type of skill set, by all means, be my guest. I'll just scoop up someone better with my next pick on the draft board. Here's the bottom line: my statement on the show was accurate. He had one dominant season. And even that's a half truth as he only got 16 starts in 2006. He put up serviceable numbers in 2010 in wins and strikeouts. But the ERA and WHIP were pretty pedestrian. So yes 2013 was a good season for Liriano. But the problem is all the bad ones that came before it. Tom discussed the fact that he was rebounding from arm trouble. Here's his career pitching arm injury history: forearm inflammation in 2006 leading to Tommy John surgery in November of that year. You can't use TJ 7 years later as an excuse when the accepted recovery window is 2 seasons. He had a shoulder strain in late 2011 costing him the last fifth of the season, but not requiring surgical intervention. In fact, aside from breaking his RIGHT humerus in December of last year, Liriano has spent the last two years healthy and taking his regular turn. He was out until May of this year recovering from the fracture and rounding into shape. Need more cold water on this latest hot name? How about this: Baseball-Reference.com's list of 10 most comparable pitchers. Scott Kazmir, number one. Yum. Are we really going to be serious about holding a keeper spot for a guy who had half a breakout season 7 years ago, and has put up two ownable years since? I'll pass. It doesn't mean I won't draft him at some point next year, but he's a back of rotation guy for a fantasy team. Perhaps the fact that he adjusted his mechanics is the reason for his success. It's possible he'll have another good year next year, but it's no sure thing. He should be grouped with guys like Justin Masterson and Lance Lynn. And I'll draft both of them for their youth and career arcs before throwing a pick at a 30 year old, frequently injured power lefty.
Finally, I'll bring up some names we didn't discuss, but probably merited being in the conversation.
Justin Verlander-There's nothing really wrong with the old warhorse, as his post-season performance this year is proving. Mostly he didn't have the run support that his teammate, Max Scherzer benefited from. His real crime? Appearing to be human, rather than the fireball throwing cyborg we previously assumed he was. I think he'll be fine in 2014. He didn't make our list because the numbers simply weren't good enough this year, and there is some concern based upon his crazy high pitch counts for multiple seasons.
Jose Fernandez-Good lord, do I love this kid. And that was before a lights out rookie season. He just gets easy to overlook because of the limited upside of pitching on a team that featured no offense and a shaky bullpen. It also has to be kept in mind that we are talking about one season. A small sample size, and many players struggle in their sophomore seasons.
Garret Cole-Jose Fernandez redux. Great minor league numbers, got called up into the middle of a pennant race and pitched like a veteran. Future is bright. His peripherals could have been stronger, but he posted 10 wins in a short season. Worth thinking about.
Shelby Miller-Same as the two above, but with more stability. He's the real deal and will only get better. This is one young arm I would have no qualms with as a keeper.
David Price-Horrible start, great finish (well, aside from the post-season). Should be a little more stable across the length of next season. The one danger: his looming departure from Tampa. That ballpark suppresses offense more than any other. No Dome for David could mean no clothes for the emperor.
Here are the career numbers. And for the record I plucked Smithson's name out of my head as a Red Sox fan thinking he was a hyperbolic overstatement of mediocre pitching. Turns out he's actually kind of close to Liriano. I'd still rather have Liriano, but...
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Thursday, October 17, 2013
Got Questions? Need advice?
Looking for a little help with roster questions? Need some help deciding who to keep? What to bid? Not sure if that trade offer is good or not? Send us your questions to be answered directly and possibly appear on the show!
Message us at:
Twitter: @keeperssleepers
email: keepers.sleepers@gmail.com
Message us at:
Twitter: @keeperssleepers
email: keepers.sleepers@gmail.com
Starting Pitchers
Jason and Tom break down the top 5 starting pitcher keepers for fantasy baseball. Hear them talk about the balls thrown and hear them break each other's as they compare lists. Get prepared for your 5 by 5 10-team roto-league with this slightly helpful look at whom you might consider keeping in your line-up. Follow continued conversations on Twitter @KeepersSleepers.
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