The biggest initial debate that Tom and I had was Cliff Lee. Tom doesn't like him in the top 10 due to his age, which will be 35 for the majority of the 2014 season (he'll turn 36 on August 30th that year). This is a legitimate concern. Age is an enemy once a player has passed their prime years. Lee could be due for a large age related regression. He has shown a little bit of decline in the last couple of years with his strikeout % declining while the league's rate is rising. That said, he still put up very solid numbers. Do I believe he is a long term keeper? Absolutely not. But I do believe he still has top 10 value for 2014, even with regression. Further I believe he's capable of staying at or near his current level for one more season. The excellent fangraphs.com site has, using their "Steamer" projection model, pegged him for a major innings pitched dip in 2014 to 192. I can't help but notice though, that with the exception of his nightmare 2007 season (6.29 ERA in 16 starts, plus a demotion to the minors), Lee hasn't failed to post 200 or more innings since his first full season in 2004 when he threw 179. To me the bottom line is that he has superb walk and strikeout rates, surrenders runs at 77% of the league average, and grinds out wins, even on a bad team. Any arm that gives you the possibility of a sub 3.00 ERA, 200 innings, 200 K's and a low WHIP is a safe keeper.
The big debate was Francisco Liriano. Tom loves his upside. I am all too familiar with his reality. I'll post his career stats (and those of Mike Smithson just for fun) at the bottom of this post. Scroll down right now and check them out, I'll wait right here.
Now, if you want to invest in that type of skill set, by all means, be my guest. I'll just scoop up someone better with my next pick on the draft board. Here's the bottom line: my statement on the show was accurate. He had one dominant season. And even that's a half truth as he only got 16 starts in 2006. He put up serviceable numbers in 2010 in wins and strikeouts. But the ERA and WHIP were pretty pedestrian. So yes 2013 was a good season for Liriano. But the problem is all the bad ones that came before it. Tom discussed the fact that he was rebounding from arm trouble. Here's his career pitching arm injury history: forearm inflammation in 2006 leading to Tommy John surgery in November of that year. You can't use TJ 7 years later as an excuse when the accepted recovery window is 2 seasons. He had a shoulder strain in late 2011 costing him the last fifth of the season, but not requiring surgical intervention. In fact, aside from breaking his RIGHT humerus in December of last year, Liriano has spent the last two years healthy and taking his regular turn. He was out until May of this year recovering from the fracture and rounding into shape. Need more cold water on this latest hot name? How about this: Baseball-Reference.com's list of 10 most comparable pitchers. Scott Kazmir, number one. Yum. Are we really going to be serious about holding a keeper spot for a guy who had half a breakout season 7 years ago, and has put up two ownable years since? I'll pass. It doesn't mean I won't draft him at some point next year, but he's a back of rotation guy for a fantasy team. Perhaps the fact that he adjusted his mechanics is the reason for his success. It's possible he'll have another good year next year, but it's no sure thing. He should be grouped with guys like Justin Masterson and Lance Lynn. And I'll draft both of them for their youth and career arcs before throwing a pick at a 30 year old, frequently injured power lefty.
Finally, I'll bring up some names we didn't discuss, but probably merited being in the conversation.
Justin Verlander-There's nothing really wrong with the old warhorse, as his post-season performance this year is proving. Mostly he didn't have the run support that his teammate, Max Scherzer benefited from. His real crime? Appearing to be human, rather than the fireball throwing cyborg we previously assumed he was. I think he'll be fine in 2014. He didn't make our list because the numbers simply weren't good enough this year, and there is some concern based upon his crazy high pitch counts for multiple seasons.
Jose Fernandez-Good lord, do I love this kid. And that was before a lights out rookie season. He just gets easy to overlook because of the limited upside of pitching on a team that featured no offense and a shaky bullpen. It also has to be kept in mind that we are talking about one season. A small sample size, and many players struggle in their sophomore seasons.
Garret Cole-Jose Fernandez redux. Great minor league numbers, got called up into the middle of a pennant race and pitched like a veteran. Future is bright. His peripherals could have been stronger, but he posted 10 wins in a short season. Worth thinking about.
Shelby Miller-Same as the two above, but with more stability. He's the real deal and will only get better. This is one young arm I would have no qualms with as a keeper.
David Price-Horrible start, great finish (well, aside from the post-season). Should be a little more stable across the length of next season. The one danger: his looming departure from Tampa. That ballpark suppresses offense more than any other. No Dome for David could mean no clothes for the emperor.
Here are the career numbers. And for the record I plucked Smithson's name out of my head as a Red Sox fan thinking he was a hyperbolic overstatement of mediocre pitching. Turns out he's actually kind of close to Liriano. I'd still rather have Liriano, but...
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